16 Jan 2011, Posted by Hilary Scurlock in Features,News,On Tour, 1 Comments

Wondering About Down Under? Our Aussie Open Preview

It’s the first Major of the 2011 season, but it’s really too early to tell who the favorites are for the Australian Open, who will then set the tone for the upcoming season.  Yes, there are rankings to go by, but really, it’s tough to distinguish who has carried momentum over from 2010, who has taken the off-season to step up their game, or who’s simply out of shape. We will always have our favorites, but you never know which surprising new faces could be the ones to watch.

So, with a little bit of analysis, and a lot of guessing, we try to answer some of the early season questions on our minds going into these next two weeks in Melbourne.

Agree? Disagree?  Lets us know in the comments.    

Which Top Name Could Make a Surprising Early Exit? 

Though Caroline Wozniacki is the #1 seed, she’s our #1 candidate to not make it into the second week.  She lost her first round match in last week’s tune-up in Sydney, and following that, lost two exhibition matches to Vera Zvonareva and Kim Clijsters, both in straight sets. Suffice it to say, it hasn’t been a good start to 2011 for Wozniacki, who many feel is simply babysitting Serena’s top-ranking while Williams continues to be sidelined by injury.  She plays today against Argentina’s Gisela Dulko, a tough first round match-up for a #1 who’s clearly off her game.  

Who Will Emerge As the One to Watch?

Though Gael Monfils isn’t exactly a new name on the scene anymore (he’s the #12 seed in Melbourne), the entertaining Frenchman hasn’t really entered the discussion of serious contenders to take a major.  We predict a strong run for Monfils here will launch him into the Soderling/Berdych/even-Murray realm; the B-team, if you will.

On the women’s side, we like Jarmila Groth as this season’s Sam Stosur—but see our answer below for more on that.

Who Will Be the Hometown Hero:  Sam Stosur or Jarmila Groth?

While Sam Stosur was the wonder from Down Under all last season, we predict Jarmila Groth will be Australia’s golden girl in 2011, especially in Melbourne.  While Stosur’s consistency and no-nonsense play always makes her a strong contender, Groth has got an impressive win streak going after taking the Hobart International victory, and is poised to have a truly breakout year.  If she can get past 21^st seed Yanina Wickmayer in the first round, she’s our pick to possibly emerge as the hometown hero in the second week.

Which American Will Make it the Furthest?

As much as we’d like to see Andy Roddick make a run, we don’t think it’s going to happen—we don’t doubt his fitness, and we still stand behind his serve, but doesn’t he just seem so unhappy out there?  We can’t put our finger on it—perhaps it’s just age—but we think Roddick will make an early (though not entirely surprising) exit this time.

However, even though Serena continues to be injured (though not entirely bed-ridden), Venus has fully recovered from the knee injury that stopped her at the end of 2010.  We haven’t heard much from Venus in early 2011, but leave it to her to quietly put together a run to at least the semi-finals.  She always seems to have something to prove, and now that S isn’t down under with her, could have a (mostly) clear run to the title.

In the Finals:  Rafa, Roger, or Both?

We think Rafa, with his Jedi-mind-trick-level mental toughness, will definitely make the finals, especially with the added motivation of winning four consecutive majors.  He’s definitely the one to beat, so slot him into the final match.  However, it’s harder to tell whether or not he will be staring down Federer on the other side of the net.  Roger has the technique, finesse, and all-around game that has made him such as champion of the game, but lately it only takes one streaking player (a focused Djokovic, a fit del Potro) to make Roger’s play seem elementary.  To be fair, Roger is the best player other than Nadal to take the court, and in a men’s field with little champion-caliber options, he’s a definite favorite to reach the final also.  We’ll go with “Both,” but not convincingly.

MaSha and Ana: Who Will Make It Further?

In our opinion, both Sharapova and Ivanovic have a ton to prove going into this season. Though both still have strong fan followings, their on-the-court successes have not exactly matched their off-the-court popularity.  Maria, plagued by on-and-off injuries over the past several seasons, hasn’t really been able to live up to the superstar hype from early in her career.  Ana, deperately needing to put her 2010 slump season behind her, seems more poised to do so, having lost weight and improved her fitness entering 2011.  She’s also been playing much stronger tennis, according to some tennis experts who have watched her off-season work.  We like A.I. to make a stronger run in Melbourne, but the jury’s out on who will have a more successful season in 2011.

Who Will Be the Victors?

Easy picks for us:  Kimmy Clijsters will continue the momentum she had closing out last season, and Rafa Nadal will achieve the consecutive (though not a tried-and-true calendar year) Grand Slam.