30 Aug 2010, Posted by Hilary Scurlock in Features,On Tour, 2 Comments

U.S. Open 2010 Preview: Five Questions and Two Picks

There is nothing better about the plethora of US Open previews than the speculation around broad open-ended questions that are truly impossible to answer.  It’s like predicting the weather, you can’t ever really be wrong, and when you’re right, you’re a genius. (Did we mention we correctly picked the Wimby winners?)  Thus, we try and tackle five of the less-obvious obvious questions, and then add more speculation to the mix with our winner picks.

Only the next fortnight will tell if this analysis verges on prophetic genius…

Five Questions:

Can Maria Sharapova capitalize on Serena’s absence?

Masha is definitely poised to make a strong run over the next two weeks, and her on-and-off-court attitude seems to say “I’m having fun, but I’m in this to win it.” With the absence of her kryptonite Serena from the women’s draw, it seems to open up the road to the final for Masha.  However, we can’t pinpoint this feeling, but our gut is telling us it’s not her year.  We definitely think a Masha championship comeback will happen (and is even in the midst of happening), but she’ll likely find more success next season than in this Slam. (Right now she is totes our favorite to win in Oz.) 

Will this really be Andy Murray’s Slam to win? Seriously?

This is a tough one.  Yes, Andy Murray is playing tip-top tennis, and yes he did win the US Open series title, but he still looks a bit gun-shy in the Slams.  When he’s having an “on” day, he’s unstoppable. But if Muzz gets out of his comfort zone for one second, he tends to totally lose his composure and his game.  This happened several times at Wimby, and that was on his home turf. Even though he’s gained favor among American fans, we don’t think he can handle the spotlight of the NYC lights. Not to worry though, we think he’ll hit his stride next year and win at least his first, if not second, Slam.

Which American will go the furthest (on both the men’s and women’s sides)?

The men’s favorite, if for primarily sentimental reasons, is clearly Andy Roddick.  But those of us who watched the US Open series know he’s not the one playing the best tennis.  We’d like to pick Sam Querrey, who took an early title in LA, but see our above note about Muzz on losing composure and losing his game.  We’re going to go with Mardy Fish to be the dark horse into at least the quarterfinals.  Fish is hands-down playing the strongest American tennis right now.  I guess the real question is: when does Fish stop being the “dark horse” and start becoming “the best American”? Alas, the fans aren’t ready to give up on A-Rod yet…

On the women’s side, our money is on Venus, obvi. She also has the potential to dominate in Serena’s absence (especially with the extra rest from not having to play doubles). Sorry, Mel Oudin, we think you’re cute and all, but your beginner’s luck seems to have run out.  Hey, that doesn’t mean you can’t still prove us wrong…

Will Fed show up to play?

The answer to this depends on which Federer you have in mind.  Will the take-no-prisoners-and-only-drop-one-set Fed show up to play?  Probably not.  Will the Federer who still has arguably the best technique, hardest shots, and most capacity for wildly entertaining tennis show up?  Of course.  Call this time in Federer’s career whatever you like—a slump, fatherhood, mass confusion—he’s still the most intimidating player on tour, and most of the others still openly admit that.  We think he’s just sleeping on a second wave of domination late in his career, but his “sleeping” is legitimate #2 tennis. He’s still a threat, Rafa.

Who is the person we’d be happiest to win, even if he or she’s only got an outside shot?

Again, for sentimental reasons, we’d like to see Andy Roddick win another Open.  We’d also like to see an entertaining personality make a run, by virtue of the fact they’d simply be fun to watch; this would include sleepers like Janko Tipseravic, Robin Soderling, Novak Djokovic, or Ernests Gulbis.

For the ladies, we’d really like to see Ana Ivanovic or Dinara Safina make it to the final, if only because their downfalls have been so fast and so harsh.  But, realistically, we’re always rooting for our favorite Belgian sweetheart, Kimmy Clijsters, to defend her title. 

Predictions:

Rafa will take the men’s title.  

He predicted this title himself after winning the French completely bypassing any mention of Wimbledon, which he also won. He’s ready to reign in the #1 spot, and with that comes domination on all surfaces, including his first US Open title.  The one mitigating factor in his quest for king is that he has not had much practice this summer on admittedly his weakest surface.

Caroline Wozniacki will win a hard-fought women’s title.

 Though the experts tend to favor post-Wimbledon rest (in fact, Rafa spent most of the summer on vacation), we predict that a lot of pre-Open practice will pay off on the women’s side, and that benefits top seed Caro the most. She has already had an active summer, winning the Pilot Pen, the Rogers Cup, and the e-Boks Danish Open. All of other players battling injuries, comebacks, and downfalls will somehow cancel themselves out, leaving only the sharpest, most focused player at the end to win her first Slam.  

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Photo: tennis-wallpapers.com